OPW — Jan 28 — Here's my thoughts on what 2007 holds for online dating and social networking. What are your predictions? Your comments please.
1. The Internet Dating market will stratify further with the introduction of new high end services and hybrid sites offering mostly free services. e.g. Match.com's VIP service and LTR.com
2. Social Networks will continue to niche out. e.g.
ActiveRain, A Small World, Grono.net, iWiW.net, MyChurch.org, Rate.ee, WAYN, Zaadz
3. A free eHarmony will emerge
4. Mobile dating will pick up after the launch of the iPhone and N95
5. A new social networking site will steal some of Facebook’s thunder and focus purely on the student market
6. Two more top 10 dating properties will offer optional background checks
7. Match will pioneer high-end matchmaking
8. Dating and social networking services will do voice, properly
9. PlentyofFish will rise to a top 5 dating site rank in the UK and USA
I don’t know about most of your predictions, Mark, but I do agree that Match.com is aiming for the folks with money. The new “look” of the site warbles “classy” and makes the old style look cheesy. I think too that we are going to see much more emphasis on honesty (maybe background checks are a part of that) and a realization that lying is just not worth it.
Here’s the prediction that I made for Yahoo! Personals 2007 list:
“Online daters are getting increasingly fed up with those who lie or distort in their profiles, photos or emails and are looking for ways to find out what is really true,” cautions Kathryn Lord. “Online searches, background checks, reporting bad behavior, and ending contact when lies are discovered will become more the norm in 2007. Those looking for ‘just sex’ (and who may be are married as well) are finding sites that cater to them, so the big sites like Yahoo! Personals are increasingly populated by the truly single who are seriously looking for love. Folks will become more honest and better behaved online and off.”
– My main prediction, the U.S. online dating market will remain enormous!!!
* Age segmentation will trigger the “fun” social_networking market to merge with the fun_online_dating market, mainly for 13-25 years old persons (teenagers). Many sites are only cheap channels for deliver ads, i.e. infomercial-advertainment companies on the web! like PlentyofFish.
* the “quality” social_networking market will overlap with the quality_online_dating market: mainly for 26-and more years old persons. Clients will pay for quality contacts (compatible real persons) and to avoid being hurt in their feelings by other persons. They know the difference between real friends from casual acquaintances.
* business_networking will peak and decay. Remember http://www.zerodegrees.com, discretely buried last year.
– There are now more than 900 “Online Dating & Social Networking Sites” at the United States and Canada, but top 10 Online Dating sites have 80%/85% of actual market. If you add net paid subscribers of all U.S. dating sites, perhaps the total is less than 5 million!!! What dating sites are doing / will do to court the other U.S. 80 million singles not seriously dating online? They need to offer great innovations, but …. they will definitively come from new discoveries on Theories of Romantic Relationships Development but NOT from high-end matchmaking as Match.com is trying. Remember Engage.com!!!
– Dating and social networking services will never do voice, because of time consuming.
– a free “eHarmony”? How it will earn money? by ads? Who will be the Chief Scientist Advisor?
– Mobile dating will peak and decay: Which is the size of the U.S. mobile Dating market? Only USD 2 million for more than 20 players! Dating on the mobile is about having fun (easy to use and provide instant gratification!) rather than developing long term relationships. Studies into usability have proven that users do not want a simple replication of the online dating experience on their phone but will demand complementary capabilities that utilise the unique capabilities of mobile devices. (e.g. always_on and locationally aware). Carriers will receive the main portion of the revenue.
– Actual compatibility matching sites like eHarmony, True, YahooPersonals Premier, Perfectmatch, Chemistry and other sites with proprietary tests or models cannot change their matching method/technique/algorithm nor improve their reliability/quality have low successful matching rates, because their proprietary tests or models have great precision in measuring different psychological variables but their matching algorithms have low precision when comparing one psycho_pattern to others.
The whole precision is less than you could achieve searching by your own!!!
This problem arises because they use multiple regression equations in their matching algorithms to predict relationship compatibility!
My List of Fiascoes:
#1 Remember WeAttract.com? Discretely sunk during 2006
#2 http://www.Matchwise.com
#3 http://www.MarsVenusDating.com
#4 http://www.Cybersuitors.com
#5 http://www.Chemistry.com
#6 http://www.Engage.com
Oh, by 2008 free sites will no longer exist, Legislation will kill them and also their users will get tired of them!
Kindest Regards,
Fernando Ardenghi.
Buenos Aires.
Argentina.
ardenghifer@gmail.com
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