BE2 BLOG — Mar 12 — Statistically, every marriage only has a 50% chance of lasting forever. If you want to know the statistical odds of your marriage lasting, you can let the divorce calculator figure out how long your relationship is likely to last, depending on your age, education and family planning. Of course that’s pure statistics and not even the lowest divorce risk can actually prevent a divorce.
The full article was originally published at be2 Blog, but is no longer available.
Mark Brooks: 5% of marriages last 50 years.
Just why is 50% a bad number to most people. The marriage failure rater is higher in the USA. But still, this is actually a pretty darn good success rate given that most people don’t have a clue what they really want. Thats why internet dating sites continue to prosper. At least you can get the tough questions out of the way on dating sites right up front, and have a little chat time to see if you’re somewhat cognitively compatible, before the chemistry kicks in.
Just why is 50% a bad number to most people. The marriage failure rater is higher in the USA. But still, this is actually a pretty darn good success rate given that most people don’t have a clue what they really want. Thats why internet dating sites continue to prosper. At least you can get the tough questions out of the way on dating sites right up front, and have a little chat time to see if you’re somewhat cognitively compatible, before the chemistry kicks in.
Mark, I have serious doubts about the widely bandied “50% divorce” stat. I heard that it actually arose around 25 years ago, when the US census published stats showing something like 8M people getting married in a year, and 4M getting divorced. Someone in the media picked this up and started claiming a 50% divorce rate.
If so, this is ridiculous. 4M got divorced in a given year, *out of all marriages in existence at that time, including the 8M that year*. You can’t compare the 4M to the 8M – the one is apples to the other’s oranges:)
I suspect the “true” divorce rate is actually less – a lot less. It just doesn’t serve a lot of organization’s purposes to find out and promote the true figure, particularly those opposed to traditional marriage (it is like the mistaken “10% of people are gay” stat that is often quoted. Actual stats are more in the 1% range, of those exclusively gay).
As for 5% of marriages lasting 50 years – that is likely because of death, not divorce.
Mark, I have serious doubts about the widely bandied “50% divorce” stat. I heard that it actually arose around 25 years ago, when the US census published stats showing something like 8M people getting married in a year, and 4M getting divorced. Someone in the media picked this up and started claiming a 50% divorce rate.
If so, this is ridiculous. 4M got divorced in a given year, *out of all marriages in existence at that time, including the 8M that year*. You can’t compare the 4M to the 8M – the one is apples to the other’s oranges:)
I suspect the “true” divorce rate is actually less – a lot less. It just doesn’t serve a lot of organization’s purposes to find out and promote the true figure, particularly those opposed to traditional marriage (it is like the mistaken “10% of people are gay” stat that is often quoted. Actual stats are more in the 1% range, of those exclusively gay).
As for 5% of marriages lasting 50 years – that is likely because of death, not divorce.
Hate to burst your bubble Sam, but simply google divorce rate 2008 and you will see goverment stats that it has remained steady at 50%. BUT, bear in mind that people who go through multiple divorces (or marry early) skew this number. That is, the average couple marrying for the first time at age 30 has a better than 50% chance of the marriage staying together. But take all marriages and all divorces and it is a shade over 50% consistently.
Hate to burst your bubble Sam, but simply google divorce rate 2008 and you will see goverment stats that it has remained steady at 50%. BUT, bear in mind that people who go through multiple divorces (or marry early) skew this number. That is, the average couple marrying for the first time at age 30 has a better than 50% chance of the marriage staying together. But take all marriages and all divorces and it is a shade over 50% consistently.
Hate to burst your bubble Sam, but simply google divorce rate 2008 and you will see goverment stats that it has remained steady at 50%. BUT, bear in mind that people who go chat through multiple divorces (or marry early) skew this number. That is, the average couple marrying for the first time at age 30 has a better than 50% chance of the marriage staying together. But take all marriages and all divorces and it is a shade over 50% consistently.
Hate to burst your bubble Sam, but simply google divorce rate 2008 and you will see goverment stats that it has remained steady at 50%. BUT, bear in mind that people who go chat through multiple divorces (or marry early) skew this number. That is, the average couple marrying for the first time at age 30 has a better than 50% chance of the marriage staying together. But take all marriages and all divorces and it is a shade over 50% consistently.