OPW – Continued challenges with Gen Z usage remain the long-term cloud hanging over the dating sector. In the short term, MTCH and BMBL have seen considerable management turnover, and the market is now waiting to see if new leaders can change course. At MTCH, CEO Bernard Kim and CTO Will Wu have departed, as has long-time President/CFO Gary Swidler, while Spencer Rascoff (previously on the Board) and Steven Bailey (Swidler's longtime lieutenant) have taken over the CEO and CFO roles. At BMBL, Whitney Wolfe Herd has returned and begun a significant overhaul of senior management. The exception: consistent leadership from George Arison and Vanna Krantz has helped anchor GRND's continued outperformance.
The big question facing new management at MTCH and BMBL: can consistent, healthy revenue growth re-emerge, or are these mature businesses where cost-cutting and the return of capital to shareholders become more important themes?
In the shorter term, the market is broadly focused on the potential impact of changing US tariff policies, and online dating has typically been more resilient in economic downturns relative to other Internet sectors like eCommerce and digital advertising. With that said, a la carte revenue trends dipped at Tinder in the past few weeks, so it's not completely immune, and macro uncertainty adds to the challenge of kick-starting innovation, improving trust and safety, and figuring out the right mix of price and product merchandising facing MTCH and BMBL.
Daniel Salmon – Partner, New Street Research
Mark Brooks: This is a guest post from our investor analyst friend Dan Salmon. We occasionally work on Zoom and IRL investor events with investor analysts who cover the dating industry.
